Fifty Years of Shammy Awards

Last night the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences concluded its 50th annual presentation of the Grammys by awarding “Album of the Year” (AOTY) to 67-year-old Jazz legend Herbie Hancock (right). By doing so, the recording industry once again indulged its penchant for bestowing its highest honor upon artists who are far past their prime. Other recent examples include U2 in 2006, Santana in 2000, and Bob Dylan in 1997. Oh, and Ray Charles in 2005, who was particularly past his prime (i.e., deceased).

All of this leads me to question if the Grammys are even valid.

Scientists often use the term “validity” to describe whether something (e.g., a test) truly measures what it claims to measure. If a research group wishes to publish findings on, say, happiness, it’s essential that they first conceive a means of actually defining and measuring happiness. With that in mind, it’s difficult to conceive of a scientific journal – with the possible exception of the British Annals of Horse Shite (BAHS) – that would pay even the slightest bit of attention to Grammy et al.

To support the above statement, I’ve enlisted the aid of Acclaimed Music (AM), a website run by a Swedish statistician that mathematically combines every conceivable music critics list (ever!) in an attempt to conclusively determine “The Most Recommended Albums and Songs of All Time”.

A quick comparison between the yearly AM lists and the Grammy list yields an interesting finding. Specifically, between 1959 and 2008 there were precisely two AM “most acclaimed” albums – Michael’s Jackson’s Thriller (1982) and Lauryn Hill’s The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill (1998) – that also won AOTY. Two! That’s a 4% agreement.

To be fair, there are an additional nine AM toppers that were at least nominated for the top Grammy. The earliest such example is Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music (1962) by then-32-year-old Ray Charles. Had he won, he would have done so while still at the height of his creative powers. While the Academy opted instead that year for The First Family (a comedy album by the infamous Vaughn Meader), they would make it up to Charles 42 years later, which he surely would of appreciated had he still been alive.

So what does inform the industry's decision making process if not the critics? One possible answer lies within the pages of Billboard Magazine. Take, for instance, its annual year-end list of the US’ best-selling albums. A quick analysis reveals that no less than 7 AOTY winners were the previous year’s #1 breadwinner for the music industry. Two additional winners – Henry Mancini’s The Music from Peter Gunn (1958) and Alanis Morissette’s Jagged Little Pill (1995) – would go on to become top seller for the year in which they won. Mariah Carey has been thrice nominated for AOTY – most recently in 2005 for The Emancipation of Mimi – all for albums that: (a) finished first (x2) or second (x1) on the Billboard list, yet (b) failed to even be ranked by Acclaimed Music.

What does it say about the Grammys that – according to the above analysis anyway – album sales are ~4x better than critical consensus at predicting who wins?



MC Gallagher (left) is resident music nerd for Mic's Tape and a founding member of BrumpelStiltskin.